IPv4’s Great Angst of A-Dates and T-Dates
05.04.2007
In his recent book “Une brève histoire de l’avenir”, (A brief history of the future), French thinker and essayist Jacques Attali predicts an age of hyperdemocracy starting around mid century. When my e-mail box heated up under the flows of passionate and spirited e-mail generated by the ARIN consultation process known as PPML (Public Policy Mailing List) I wondered if this was an early emanation of hyperdemocracy at work.
The specter of a titanic battle for the last remaining blocks of IPv4 addresses raised adrenalin levels and stimulated imagination. Some saw black markets flourishing, saw some hoarding addresses like wheat during a famine in centuries past or epic bidding wars on e-bay. Others thought that this kind of guillotine like cut-off dates could hurt some tender necks and should not be regulated; that nature and free market economy should follow its course whatever the consequences. And some dreamers still think that everything in the IP address world is perfect the way it is; these good people probably also still think that epicycles govern the movement of planets around the sun.
What was the fuss all about?
A rather straightforward proposal with what some could have considered an ominous title: “IPv4 Countdown Policy Proposal” aka “Policy Proposal 2007-12.”
Now that the memorable jousts between Geoff Houston and Tony Hain have entered IP history, a wide consensus has emerged, supported by hard data that we will be running out of IPv4 addresses, sometime in 2012. The potaroo report (http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/), I accessed today, the first of May 2007, gives May 5th 2012 as the fatidic date the RIR’s run dry! Five years! In this context, it only seems reasonable to me that time has come to apply some scarcity management principles to the allocation of IPv4 addresses. After all this is what would be expected from any responsible authority or government for any critical resource. Any crisis management course will tell you that left to its own devices; crisis or scarcity situations are likely to lead to chaotic and disruptive behavioral patterns.
In the case of the dwindling supply of IPv4 addresses, the proposal calls for a date whereby the allocation of IPv4 blocks will be terminated as a general rule. A first trigger would be an A-date (Announcement date) on the day the IANA pool falls below thirty /8 address blocks. At that point in time the RIR’s will have to announce a T-date (Termination date). That T-date would be two years after A-date. Ten /8 blocks should remain at T-Date based on current consumption levels. Provision is made in the proposal to change the two years to T-Date if consumption exceeds projection during these two years. Blocks could be reserved for critical infrastructure, such as aviation, which is certainly a sensible thing to do.
At the recent ARIN XIX meeting in San Juan april 22-25th, the IANA presentation gave an analogy between the situation of the Aral Lake and the IPv4 address pool: both are drying up at an alarming rate.
And when all was said and done and ARIN XX adjourned, the proposal had been defeated. ARIN lawyers feared potential lawsuits for the last address blocks if they imposed a cut-off date and refused allocation of some of the remaining blocks. Far fetched? With the litigious nature of American Society, court battles for custody of the last remaining IPv4 address blocks would provide a good spectacle. In fact even without T-dates lawyers could have a fieldday fighting it out for the penultimate address block.
Will the proposal be reworked and refined and put back on the table at ARIN XX in Albuquerque, NM in October? I hope so; and prior to the meeting, hyperdemocracy will spawn another bout of hyperactivity. In the meantime the Aral will continue to dry up and so will the IPv4 address pool.
Yves Poppe
May 2007
ARIN XIX presentations: http://www.arin.net/meetings/minutes/ARIN_XIX/index.html
Policy proposal 2007-12: http://www.arin.net/policy/proposals/2007_12.html
